Navigating complexity, seizing opportunity

The global renewables sector stands at a crossroads. 

The urgency of climate action remains top of our agenda, but today’s world is being reshaped by geopolitical shifts, economic volatility, and changing investor sentiment. The landscape is more complex than ever, requiring underwriters across the clean energy sector to think beyond renewables and embrace opportunity within the wider green transformation. 

At GCube, we’ve spent decades insuring the risks of renewables projects - helping developers, lenders, and investors navigate the challenges of wind, solar, and energy storage. Now, as the market matures and new challenges arise, we are focused on strengthening our role across the green transformation space, ensuring long-term sustainability and resilience.

Europe’s renewable energy ambitions have accelerated in response to geopolitical events. The war in Ukraine underscored the continent’s reliance on imported fossil fuels, pushing energy independence up the agenda. The conflict in Gaza has heightened global tensions and further complicated the energy markets. But as nations ramp up defence spending, there’s a real risk that climate efforts could be deprioritised.

Meanwhile, inflation and interest rate hikes have significantly increased the cost of large-scale projects, making access to capital a core concern. At the same time, supply chain disruptions continue to challenge project timelines, and policy divergences across regions add further uncertainty. Investor confidence is fluctuating as they weigh long-term sustainability against short-term financial pressures.

Last week’s Renewable Energy Risk Seminar in Rome fell at a particularly pivotal moment, as the news of President Trump’s tariffs filtered through. We don’t know yet know what the full impact of these tariffs will be on the supply chain – but we can say for sure that this will mean more uncertainty, and more complexity. 

Last – but by no means least – renewables, meant to reduce the risks from extreme weather, are ironically being increasingly exposed to it. This is no longer just a U.S. problem – it’s a global one. In our Known Unknowns report, launched today, we share how natural perils are impacting the US, Europe, MENA and APAC, highlighting how robust modelling for extreme weather is becoming a prerequisite for resilient projects around the world. 

Despite these headwinds, global renewables capacity continues to grow. Offshore wind is expanding into new markets, floating wind is gaining traction, and BESS projects are becoming mainstream – even amid supply chain concerns. There are some signs that green hydrogen is moving from concept to commercialisation, while carbon capture is attracting increased policy support. These trends signal a market in transition – one where adaptability and innovation will be key.

We’re seeing many new entrants into the renewable insurance space, many drawn by ESG mandates. But as history has shown, not all will stay the course. Long-term commitment and deep sector expertise are critical. It’s why GCube has never treated renewables as a sideline business - it’s all we do.

However, for the insurance industry, this is a key moment that is highlighting how renewables technologies are increasingly interconnected with the wider global green transition. 

Renewables projects are larger, more complex, and increasingly interwoven with emerging technologies like BESS, green hydrogen, and carbon capture. 

Traditional underwriting models are also evolving to reflect this new reality – with expertise required not only in renewables, but across different clean technologies. The challenge is to provide stability in an uncertain world – ensuring that these new technologies are both insurable and bankable.

Looking ahead, we must view renewables as part of the broader green transformation occurring around us. Energy storage, industrial decarbonisation, grid modernisation, and sustainable infrastructure are all playing increasingly important roles. The future is not just about standalone wind and solar – it’s about hybrid projects, sector coupling, and integrated ecosystems that reshape the way we produce, store, and consume energy.

We’re looking at ways to support this shift. As insurers, our role extends beyond risk mitigation; we must help unlock investment in the technologies and infrastructure needed for a cleaner, more resilient world. The greatest challenge of our time is navigating the uncertainties of the green transformation while seizing the opportunities that it presents.

It will require innovation, collaboration, and, most of all, a long-term perspective. But if we get it right, the green transformation will be more than just a climate imperative – it will be a defining economic opportunity for decades to come.

We'll be collaborating closely with our insureds and brokers over the coming months on this. But in the meantime, on behalf of the entire GCube team, I wish you every success in Q2 and throughout the rest of 2025.

Fraser