New TMGX market insights report shows losses are becoming more severe and happening earlier in the year, with North America accounting for the largest share of renewables losses globally
Report data show solar now drives 80-90% of total annual losses, with major hail and flood events emerging in regions once thought benign
TMGX outlines three foundations for faster recovery from extreme weather events - data transparency, product innovation and earlier collaboration
London, 3 November 2026
A new report published today by Tokio Marine GX (TMGX), a member of the Tokio Marine HCC (TMHCC) group of companies based in Houston, Texas, shows that the global renewables market remains on the frontline in the battle against natural catastrophe (NatCat) and extreme weather risks. Faced with larger and more complex losses, and with this year's El Niño predicted to intensify extreme weather, renewables developers, asset owners, and risk managers need to shift their focus from disaster prevention to disaster recovery, according to the report.
Expecting the Worst: Building resilient recovery strategies for green
initiatives facing major weather losses draws on 19 years of proprietary claims data and insights from experts across the market to examine how extreme weather is changing risk management and disaster recovery strategies – and offers important lessons for the wider green transition.
In early 2026 alone, TMGX estimates that more than $300m of renewables market losses were recorded globally before the traditional extreme weather season had begun – with El Niño adding another variable to the seasonal picture and the need for preparedness. While onshore wind had previously been the main driver of losses globally, utility-scale solar now accounts for 80–90 per cent of annual extreme weather losses, reaching a peak of $228m in 2024.
TMGX’s proprietary claims data highlight that North America continues to lead renewables losses by region, with more than $1.115bn in cumulative claims between 2008 and 2026. Hail is now by far the costliest peril in the region, accounting for approximately $275m in total losses and averaging roughly $9.1m per claim across the full dataset.
Fraser McLachlan, Chairman of TMGX, said: “The world avoided the big peak events in 2025, but this year’s El Niño is a reminder that this can change. Our latest report should not mean expecting failure. It means recognising that major losses will occur, learning from those that have already happened, and putting the right structures in place to respond more effectively when the next one arrives.”
“Every loss has a lesson, and the resilience of the global green transition will depend on how quickly those lessons are shared and turned into action.”
Major losses are also continuing to emerge in regions once thought to be benign, a theme previously identified in TMGX’s 2025 Known Unknowns report. Updated data since the report’s publication put historical losses across the Middle East and North Africa at approximately $205m between 2008 and 2026. Europe has seen approximately $260m in sector losses, with solar projects in Italy, France and Germany experiencing significant damage from large hailstorms and flash flooding.
The report also draws on opinions from experts working across the market, who warn that reactive responses to extreme weather and complex insurance structures are prolonging operational downtime for green projects. They emphasise that true resilience depends on pre-loss preparation, such as establishing pre-negotiated service contracts, securing spare parts inventories, and agreeing on standardised claims protocols long before a disaster strikes.
TMGX argues that the market’s preparedness for NatCat and extreme weather events rests on three foundations.
- Transparency in data and analysis - a lack of historical data is not a lack of risk, and where data and lessons are shared, the benefit is measurable, with hail stowing and weather monitoring already reducing claims frequency in West Texas
- An insurance market willing to innovate - outdated business interruption cover built around 12 to 18 months of downtime falls short when a single transformer outage can run to three years; policies need to move with the times
- Creating systems where the value chain can better collectively understand and mitigate risk - response plans and adjustment teams can be agreed before a loss, while a missing Master Service Agreement can add 6 to 8 weeks of contract negotiation before EPC work can begin
Oliver Litterick, Head of Renewables at TMGX, said: “The findings in our latest report show that risk is moving faster than the tools we use to manage it. Insurers, developers and contractors must work together to agree on recovery plans, share data and keep products in step with the realities of today’s market before the next major loss event occurs, not after it.”
With extreme weather events becoming more frequent and severe, and El Niño predictions suggesting the toughest tests of the industry’s resilience are still to come, Expecting the Worst highlights the need for the green transition to move beyond prevention and place greater emphasis on preparedness.
By planning for disruption before it occurs, the industry can improve resilience, accelerate recovery and help ensure the next phase of the green transition remains insurable.
‘Expecting the Worst’ is available to download here.
— ENDS —
About Tokio Marine GX
Founded upon GCube's decades of experience in renewable energy underwriting and claims, and with expertise drawn from across Tokio Marine's global operations, Tokio Marine GX provides a single point of access to a suite of products and services, for partners and clients committed to more sustainable practices. Tokio Marine GX is part of Tokio Marine Group. Tokio Marine Group is one of the world's largest global insurance and risk players with a market capitalization of approx. $84 billion as of June 30, 2026, a network encompassing Japan and 46 countries and regions worldwide, and over 43,000 employees. Tokio Marine Group has the capabilities to drive genuine positive change through a business model grounded in a sense of purpose and social responsibility, built on 145 years of history and an enduring culture that fosters innovation and expertise.
Composed of a diverse range of insurance and solutions businesses across the world, that bring a depth and breadth of capabilities to address and mitigate the ever-evolving risks we face, we provide our clients and communities with the security they need to move forward, while working to create more resilient societies and a better tomorrow.
Tokio Marine GX is a trading name used by the Tokio Marine HCC group of companies headquartered in Houston, Texas. Tokio Marine GX operates in the United States through TMGX Insurance Services, Inc. (operating in California GCube Insurance Services, Inc. , California license number 0B86549) and in the UK and Europe through its Tokio Marine HCC International entities. For further information on the companies and licensing information, please visit https://tmgx.com/entity-and-licensing.
For further information:
Media
Brian Norris, Cognito
[email protected]